Honey, Where Did All the Male Workers Go?

As so often, it's a bit complicated. But for sure we need more men in healthcare.

What’s really going on with men and work? There is a lot of discussion of the fact that men don’t seem to be doing great in the labor market right now, certainly by comparison to women. See recent flurries in the Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Axios and NPR, for example.

I’ve a few things to say here, drawing largely on the new research brief by Ben Smith and Ravan Hawrami “What’s really going on with men and work? Seven facts”.

But if you want a one-word answer for why men are doing so much worse than women right now in terms of jobs, it is this:

Healthcare.

Male LFP: a story of students and oldies

It’s true that male labor force participation continues to trend down for the 16+ population. But one reason for that is increased participation in education. 88% of men aged 16-24 are in school and/or in employment:

One of the coolest things Ben and Ravan did was to estimate the effect of aging on male LFP by holding constant the age distribution of men aged 16+ at 2000 levels. Turns out it’s a big part of the story:

As they write:

If the age distribution had remained what it was in 2000, today’s LFP would be about 73% instead of 68%, a decline of 2 percentage-points rather than 7. The 5-point gap between the two lines is the share of the decline attributable to population aging.

It’s the healthcare economy, stupid

None of this negates recent short-term trends, including the striking finding that women now hold slightly more payroll (nonfarm) jobs then men. This is a reflection of both the welcome rise in women’s job-holding, as well as a sharpening of a long-term trend in which tougher economic conditions hit male workers harder:

In terms of recent-year trends, the big story is simple:

In 2025, 77% of payroll job growth came from healthcare and social assistance, while several male-majority sectors, including manufacturing and transportation and warehousing, saw employment declines. The labor market is increasingly creating jobs in sectors where men are underrepresented.

Warning signs on male college grads

One story worth drawing out a bit more is that the unemployment rates for workers with a BA are closer to the long-term average than usual. A college degree is acting as much less of a buffer against unemployment than usual: but that seems to be especially true of men:

I don’t think we know yet why this is, or whether it will last. It’s related in part of course to the broader story of women being in healthcare jobs, including those requiring a BA. It could be related to AI-impacted roles. Either way it’s worth watching to see if the story for male and female workers with a BA continues to diverge.

Men into HEAL

One thing is for sure. The case for getting more men into healthcare and social care jobs is not just about representation in key professions (though it is that), or about meeting labor shortages with more than half the workforce (though it is that too); it is about ensuring that men don’t get left behind because they are outside of the high-growth areas of the economy. If I may be permitted to quote from my 2022 book, Of Boys and Men:

If certain occupations are seen as no-go zones for men, their choices are constrained, just as much as for women in the reverse case. HEAL sectors are where the jobs are coming from. To improve men’s employment prospects, we need to get more of them into these kinds of jobs.

The need to get more men in HEAL jobs has been clear for years. It’s high time for policymakers to catch up and work as hard for men into HEAL as they did for women into STEM. You know I hate to say I told you so, but I did tell you so.